2004 Oscar Predictions

Last year after seeing all of the movies nominated in the 14 major categories, I was only able to correctly predict winners for 6 categories. So this year, I thought I would take a different approach. Hey, why see all the films; I’ll just make my predictions based on buzz or lack thereof. I’m sure that’s what some of the Oscar voters do. So let’s see if I fair any better than last year. Below are my predictions. I reserve the right to change my predictions so long as the ceremony has not yet begun.
Update: Of the 17 categories I made predictions on, I was only correct for 10 of them. That’s a borderline passing grade. Oh well! Quess I better stick to my day job. Perhaps the biggest surprise of the night for me was that bad boy Sean Penn won the best actor award for Mystic River. I really wanted thought Bill Murray to would win.


ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Johnny Depp – PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL
Ben Kingsley – HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
Jude Law – COLD MOUNTAIN
Bill Murray – LOST IN TRANSLATION
Sean Penn – MYSTIC RIVER
Predicted Winner: Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
Actual Winner: Sean Penn, Mystic River
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alec Baldwin – THE COOLER
Benicio Del Toro – 21 GRAMS
Djimon Hounsou – IN AMERICA
Tim Robbins – MYSTIC RIVER
Ken Watanabe – THE LAST SAMURAI
Predicted Winner: Tim Robbins, Mystic River
Actual Winner: Tim Robbins, Mystic River
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Keisha Castle-Hughes – WHALE RIDER
Diane Keaton – SOMETHING’S GOTTA GIVE
Samantha Morton – IN AMERICA
Charlize Theron – MONSTER
Naomi Watts – 21 GRAMS
Predicted Winner: Charlize Theron, Monster
Actual Winner: Charlize Theron, Monster
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Shohreh Aghdashloo – HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
Patricia Clarkson – PIECES OF APRIL
Marcia Gay Harden – MYSTIC RIVER
Holly Hunter – THIRTEEN
Renée Zellweger – COLD MOUNTAIN
Predicted Winner: Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain
Actual Winner: Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
BROTHER BEAR
FINDING NEMO
THE TRIPLETS OF BELLEVILLE
Predicted Winner: Finding Nemo
Actual Winner: Finding Nemo
ART DIRECTION
GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING
THE LAST SAMURAI
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
SEABISCUIT
Predicted Winner: Girl With A Pearl Earring
Actual Winner: The Lord of the Rings
CINEMATOGRAPHY
CITY OF GOD
COLD MOUNTAIN
GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
SEABISCUIT
Predicted Winner: City of God
Actual Winner: Master and Commander
COSTUME DESIGN
GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING
THE LAST SAMURAI
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
SEABISCUIT
Predicted Winner: The Lord of the Rings
Actual Winner: The Lord of the Rings
DIRECTING
CITY OF GOD
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
LOST IN TRANSLATION
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
MYSTIC RIVER
Predicted Winner: The Lord of the Rings
Actual Winner: The Lord of the Rings
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BALSEROS
CAPTURING THE FRIEDMANS
THE FOG OF WAR
MY ARCHITECT
THE WEATHER UNDERGROUND
Predicted Winner: Capturing the Friedmans
Actual Winner: The Fog of War
(damn! I had it right on the first go around and changed — oh well)
FILM EDITING
CITY OF GOD
COLD MOUNTAIN
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
SEABISCUIT
Predicted Winner: City of God
Actual Winner: The Lord of the Rings
MAKEUP
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL
Predicted Winner: Pirates of the Caribbean
Actual Winner: The Lord of the Rings
MUSIC (SCORE)
BIG FISH
COLD MOUNTAIN
FINDING NEMO
HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
Predicted Winner: The Lord of the Rings
Actual Winner: The Lord of the Rings
MUSIC (SONG)
“Belleville Rendez-vous” – THE TRIPLETS OF BELLEVILLE
“Into the West” – THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
“A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow” – A MIGHTY WIND
“Scarlet Tide” – COLD MOUNTAIN
“You Will Be My Ain True Love” – COLD MOUNTAIN
Predicted Winner: Into the West, The Lord of the Rings
Actual Winner: Into the West, The Lord of the Rings
BEST PICTURE
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
LOST IN TRANSLATION
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
MYSTIC RIVER
SEABISCUIT
Predicted Winner: The Lord of the Rings
Actual Winner: The Lord of the Rings
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
AMERICAN SPLENDOR
CITY OF GOD
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MYSTIC RIVER
SEABISCUIT
Predicted Winner: Mystic River
Actual Winner: The Lord of the Rings
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
THE BARBARIAN INVASIONS
DIRTY PRETTY THINGS
FINDING NEMO
IN AMERICA
LOST IN TRANSLATION
Predicted Winner: Lost in Translation
Actual Winner: Lost in Translation

5 Comments
  1. I hope you’re right about Bill Murray. He’s a genius, an American treasure, and he deserves to recognized.

  2. Oscar Recap

    Only saw bits of the Oscars…No Blacks were on stage while I watched and I didn’t see any of the Lord Of The Rings Trilogy which won everything. Best moment: “If there’s one thing that actors know, other than…

  3. Oscar Recap

    Only saw bits of the Oscars…No Blacks were on stage while I watched and I didn’t see any of the Lord Of The Rings Trilogy which won everything. Best moment: “If there’s one thing that actors know, other than…

  4. I was bummed that Bill Murray didn’t win. He’s a very gifted actor. I’ve seen just about every movie he has been in. I haven’t seen “Lost in Translation”, but my husband bought the DVD, so I’ll be seeing it soon. I can hardly wait to see some of the Tokyo locales. I was stationed in Yokosuka, Japan, for two years in the Navy, 1985-1987.

  5. apparantly you didn’t see the lord of the rings, did you? you thought that city of god would win film editing, rather than lotr, and you thought pirates would win make-up. just curious, but WHY?

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