Last year after seeing all of the movies nominated in the 14 major categories, I was only able to correctly predict winners for 6 categories. So this year, I thought I would take a different approach. Hey, why see all the films; I’ll just make my predictions based on buzz or lack thereof. I’m sure that’s what some of the Oscar voters do. So let’s see if I fair any better than last year. Below are my predictions. I reserve the right to change my predictions so long as the ceremony has not yet begun.
Update: Of the 17 categories I made predictions on, I was only correct for 10 of them. That’s a borderline passing grade. Oh well! Quess I better stick to my day job. Perhaps the biggest surprise of the night for me was that bad boy Sean Penn won the best actor award for Mystic River. I really wanted thought Bill Murray to would win.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Johnny Depp – PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL
Ben Kingsley – HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
Jude Law – COLD MOUNTAIN
Bill Murray – LOST IN TRANSLATION
Sean Penn – MYSTIC RIVER
Predicted Winner: Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
Actual Winner: Sean Penn, Mystic River
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alec Baldwin – THE COOLER
Benicio Del Toro – 21 GRAMS
Djimon Hounsou – IN AMERICA
Tim Robbins – MYSTIC RIVER
Ken Watanabe – THE LAST SAMURAI
Predicted Winner: Tim Robbins, Mystic River
Actual Winner: Tim Robbins, Mystic River
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Keisha Castle-Hughes – WHALE RIDER
Diane Keaton – SOMETHING’S GOTTA GIVE
Samantha Morton – IN AMERICA
Charlize Theron – MONSTER
Naomi Watts – 21 GRAMS
Predicted Winner: Charlize Theron, Monster
Actual Winner: Charlize Theron, Monster
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Shohreh Aghdashloo – HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
Patricia Clarkson – PIECES OF APRIL
Marcia Gay Harden – MYSTIC RIVER
Holly Hunter – THIRTEEN
Renée Zellweger – COLD MOUNTAIN
Predicted Winner: Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain
Actual Winner: Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
BROTHER BEAR
FINDING NEMO
THE TRIPLETS OF BELLEVILLE
Predicted Winner: Finding Nemo
Actual Winner: Finding Nemo
ART DIRECTION
GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING
THE LAST SAMURAI
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
SEABISCUIT
Predicted Winner: Girl With A Pearl Earring
Actual Winner: The Lord of the Rings
CINEMATOGRAPHY
CITY OF GOD
COLD MOUNTAIN
GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
SEABISCUIT
Predicted Winner: City of God
Actual Winner: Master and Commander
COSTUME DESIGN
GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING
THE LAST SAMURAI
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
SEABISCUIT
Predicted Winner: The Lord of the Rings
Actual Winner: The Lord of the Rings
DIRECTING
CITY OF GOD
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
LOST IN TRANSLATION
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
MYSTIC RIVER
Predicted Winner: The Lord of the Rings
Actual Winner: The Lord of the Rings
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BALSEROS
CAPTURING THE FRIEDMANS
THE FOG OF WAR
MY ARCHITECT
THE WEATHER UNDERGROUND
Predicted Winner: Capturing the Friedmans
Actual Winner: The Fog of War
(damn! I had it right on the first go around and changed — oh well)
FILM EDITING
CITY OF GOD
COLD MOUNTAIN
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
SEABISCUIT
Predicted Winner: City of God
Actual Winner: The Lord of the Rings
MAKEUP
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL
Predicted Winner: Pirates of the Caribbean
Actual Winner: The Lord of the Rings
MUSIC (SCORE)
BIG FISH
COLD MOUNTAIN
FINDING NEMO
HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
Predicted Winner: The Lord of the Rings
Actual Winner: The Lord of the Rings
MUSIC (SONG)
“Belleville Rendez-vous” – THE TRIPLETS OF BELLEVILLE
“Into the West” – THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
“A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow” – A MIGHTY WIND
“Scarlet Tide” – COLD MOUNTAIN
“You Will Be My Ain True Love” – COLD MOUNTAIN
Predicted Winner: Into the West, The Lord of the Rings
Actual Winner: Into the West, The Lord of the Rings
BEST PICTURE
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
LOST IN TRANSLATION
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
MYSTIC RIVER
SEABISCUIT
Predicted Winner: The Lord of the Rings
Actual Winner: The Lord of the Rings
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
AMERICAN SPLENDOR
CITY OF GOD
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MYSTIC RIVER
SEABISCUIT
Predicted Winner: Mystic River
Actual Winner: The Lord of the Rings
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
THE BARBARIAN INVASIONS
DIRTY PRETTY THINGS
FINDING NEMO
IN AMERICA
LOST IN TRANSLATION
Predicted Winner: Lost in Translation
Actual Winner: Lost in Translation